Measles by the numbers - perspective to the panic

Measles outbreaks — what, me worry?

The U.S. is currently experiencing measles outbreaks in various parts of the country. The CDC has reported that, as of March 14, there were 58 cases in 17 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York City, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.

This also means that there are currently no measles cases in 33 states. The CDC map below gives a clearer picture of the situation in the U.S., showing all the states that do not currently have any cases. 

Chicagoans concerned about cases among illegals

The city of Chicago is especially concerned about an outbreak because it has already seen twelve cases in its illegal immigrant shelters, where many of the residents have not been vaccinated. Axios Chicago reporter Monica Eng explained the fears of Chicago's residents:

Why it matters: The outbreak is raising questions about how the city manages migrant health care and vaccinations, and stoking fears that it could stigmatize new arrivals.

The big picture: The highly contagious disease is spreading in the city amid a national measles outbreak. Chicago health commissioner Simbo Ige says the city's first measles case this year didn't come from the shelter.

In expressing concern that measles reports "could stigmatize new arrivals," the term “new arrivals” refers to illegal aliens.

Catch up quick: Last week, health officials identified cases of measles at a Pilsen shelter, where 900 residents — roughly half of the people staying there — weren't immunized against the disease. Newly vaccinated shelter residents are currently being quarantined.

Two of the people infected are CPS students. The district confirmed the students attend Cooper Dual Language Academy in Pilsen and Armour Elementary School in Bridgeport.

School-aged Pilsen shelter residents have been advised to stay out of school until the vaccination status of all fellow residents has been resolved.

Shelter residents vaccinated

Over this week, every eligible Pilsen shelter resident has consented and received an MMR vaccination, Ige says. Officials are also now administering them to new arrivals at the landing zone.

Putting case numbers into perspective

People may be concerned about the possibility of a measles epidemic because of the fear-driving attention given to this disease. However, as will become evident, there are grounds to believe that measles in modern America is generally not a deadly disease. It can also be argued that there is no need to be concerned that low vaccination rates are causing the outbreaks. 

As apparent from the CDC’s chart below, measles outbreaks are cyclical and this year’s outbreaks are, so far, nothing to write home about. After the high number of cases in 2019, there were virtually no measles cases in 2020. Even with the 1274 cases in the U.S. in 2019, given the U.S. population of 328,239,523, the case rate was 0.0000004, way below one percent.

Mortality rate zero

While measles may be considered to be quite contagious, the mortality rate is virtually zero in developed countries, such as the U.S.. The U.S. mortality rate vs case rate is shown in Our World in Data’s interactive graph below. For 2015 the mortality rate was shown as <0.01. The last measles death in the U.S. was in 2015 when a woman on immunosuppressant drugs contracted the disease and subsequently died of pneumonia. Before 2015, the last reported measles death was in 2003.

Childhood disease mortality plummeted pre-vaccines

It might also be helpful to know, as this graph from Child Health Safety shows, that deaths from measles and other childhood diseases had dropped nearly 95% before vaccines were rolled out. This also held for diseases such as scarlet fever and typhoid, for which no vaccines exist.

Measles in Hollywood

For some additional perspective, it's instructive to learn how measles used to be viewed by the general public before the measles vaccine. The video below is a collage of measles show episodes titled “Measles, Back In The Days Before The Marketing of the vaccine.” The following quotes are taken from the program episodes shown, The Donna Reed Show (1959), The Flintstones (1961), and The Brady Bunch (1969), respectively: 

The measles ain't got no class, it's kid's stuff.

Well, don't worry Fred, measles don't hurt.

Boy, this is the life isn't it?

Yeah, if you have to get sick, sure can't beat the measles.

Will the vaccine make the difference?

What effect will the Chicago vaccine campaign have. 

Will it prevent the spread of measles in the shelter? How will it affect the rest of the city's residents? Check back when we discuss the MMR vaccines to learn about additional possible ramifications of the vaccine campaign.