Half of American children will escape government education by 2030, says report
The current mass exodus from public schools suggests that only half of American students will attend them in 2030, a report has found.
The Learning Counsel, an education research institute, said it expects the number of children in public schools to drop by 16 million over the next six years, leaving just 50.26% of students enrolled. Almost a third of American students will likely be homeschooled.
Drivers of this trend will include distrust of government and school choice legislation, among other factors.
“Ultimately, the researchers said, the most significant drivers of the exodus will be ‘choice’ legislation, a preference for remote and flexible learning, political and cultural distrust of government, rising violence and bullying, and impacts of immigration,” reported Alex Newman.
Homeschooling is gaining popularity
Homeschooling remains the fastest-growing form of education. As of this year, at least 3.7 million children enrolled in home education last year, a major increase from 1.5 million in 2019.
An analysis from the Washington Post looked at 60% of the school-aged population in 7,000 school districts across 32 states and Washington, D.C. and found that homeschooling defies political, geographical and economic borders.
For example, while Republican Florida has the largest homeschool population with 154,000 homeschooled children, Democratic New York is showing the fastest growth with nearly 52,000 children homeschooled, more than double since 2017. New York City boroughs Manhattan, Brooklyn, and the Bronx saw the highest growth rates with the homeschool population in some districts surging over 300% in the last six years.
The trend is gaining popularity even in areas with high academic achievement. In 2022, over 60,000 children were homeschooled in districts that ranked in the country’s top fifth for scholastic aptitude.
Homeschoolers see improved academic performance
Studies show homeschoolers outperform their state-educated counterparts in nearly all areas. Standardized tests reveal that homeschoolers on average score over 30 percentage points higher than public schoolers in core studies such as reading, language and math. SAT results show that homeschooled children score higher than state-educated children by as many as 70 points in critical reading and 48 points in writing. They are also more likely to achieve higher GPAs in college.
Minority children who homeschool also show higher results than their counterparts in government schools. Black homeschooled students, for example, have been shown to outscore black public schooled students by 23–42 percentage points. According to government figures, 41% of homeschoolers are black, Asian, Hispanic, and others minorities.
Most homeschoolers also report being excited about life and satisfied with their work, compared to a minority of public schoolers.
As school districts lose students to the homeschool method, governments and teachers' unions are looking for ways to show more impressive numbers and boost enrollment. The Oregon State Board of Education, for example, has dropped essential skills and standardized testing requirements, which it said was necessary to fight racism. This decision was ardently backed by the Oregon Education Association, the state’s 40,000-strong teachers' union, which stands to lose members if graduation and enrollment rates falter.
