Bolsonaro: Leaving or staying? Analysis
“They’re not taking this White House, we’re gonna fight like hell.”
So said President Trump to his adoring supporters on January 4th, 2021. The president made the remarks during a rally in Georgia after mainstream media and world leaders declared Joe Biden the winner of an election rife with questions of fraud.
“The fact is we won the presidential election, we won it big. And we're going to win tomorrow,” he vowed, referring to the certification of votes in the Senate.
In October 2021 Trump endorsed his “great friend” Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, a loyal admirer of Trump whose story has been following a similar playbook.
Bolsonaro is also a Right-wing president who opposed COVID-19 mandates, is fiercely loved by his supporters and equally hated by mainstream media.
Bolsonaro was also declared the loser of his presidential race in October — which he lost by a hair to ex-convict Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — and contests the election’s results.
Bolsonaro’s presidential election has also been tarnished with compelling allegations of fraud. Many Brazilians have cited independent analyses by the electoral authorities which found that machines that were not audited had a statistically significant difference (p=10-18) in voting outcome in favor of Lula, amounting conservatively in the 1st round to 2.4% of the votes transferred and, in the 2nd round, 3.3%.
Bolsonaro’s supporters have also protested the election results; though, perhaps having a bit more moxie than their American counterparts, have done so for over 40 days. Protests erupted across the country following the results, with hundreds of thousands of Brazilian citizens blocking roads and even surrounding army barracks as they demand military intervention to counter election fraud. Law enforcement personnel reportedly joined in the protests. On Proclamation of the Republic Day on November 15th, three million Brazilians took to the streets in the capital of Brasilía alone.
And Bolsonaro also remains defiant in the face of a looming departure from the presidency on January 1, 2023. On Sunday, the president broke his 40-day silence on the election results, promising victory a day before the elections were to be certified:
I am here to listen to the people. My loyalty belongs to the people of Brazil.
The people are once again waving their flag proudly, and have hope for their country’s future. Now, we must unite.
Brazil does not need more laws – the laws which we have must be respected.
Where Trump and Bolsonaro differ, however, is that Bolsonaro invoked Brazil’s military in his last-ditch effort for victory. While Bolsonaro supporters have been calling on the Armed Forces to step in to moderate between the constitutional powers as per Article 142 of Brazil's Constitution, Bolsonaro reminded crowds at Sunday’s rally that he controls the Armed Forces.
I am the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. The Armed Forces are the last bastion against communism. They are loyal to the Brazilian people. Their duty is to defend our freedom.
We are facing difficult and painful decisions. If it goes wrong, it is because we as leaders have failed. So do not criticize without being absolutely sure of what is happening.
Everyone knows what happened over the last 4 years and what the Supreme Electoral Court has said. What is happening in our country is absurd. It would be easy to install a dictatorship in Brazil.
Bolsonaro signaled he is following in Trump’s footsteps by channeling an American president, and again appeared to suggest the Armed Forces would step in to save his presidency while also calling on the people to continue protesting.
So do not ask what I can do for you, but what you can do for your country. It is you, the people, who will decide my future and what the Armed Forces will do.
I can only be happy if you are. I will do what I can. But I can’t authorize anything by myself. This isn’t a decision for only one person alone.
Everything will work out – Nothing is lost! We will win! Power comes from the people! Everything in its time!
But while he suggested he may wield the might of the Armed Forces, at least some supporters seem to feel Bolsonaro’s promises of victory are Trump-style grandstanding.
At one heartbreaking point during Sunday’s rally, a young girl sat in the front row sobbing uncontrollably, ostensibly grieving that her leader was about to be stripped of his post. Bolsonaro had his aide wade across the pond between himself and his supporters to carry the girl back to him, where the child wrapped her arms around the president’s neck and the two tearfully embraced. Bolsonaro then took the girl by the hand and solemnly walked her across the length of the pond in front of the crowds.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen if Bolsonaro’s story will follow Trump’s script to the very end, or if a different denouement lies ahead.
Either way, January 1st will tell.
